Another Rocket Over Poland? The Agency Says "Window of Uncertainty"

EU SST assumes that during these few hours (i.e. in the so-called uncertainty window ) the highest probability of atmospheric entry will occur at 8:00 CET over Tierra del Fuego, an island at the southern tip of South America. POLSA reassures that "taking into account the rocket parameters" re-entry will last several minutes, so the object will most likely burn up entirely in the atmosphere and its debris will not reach Earth at all.

As stated in the press release, calculations by the US Space Force and independent calculations by POLSA assume that the probable entry of the rocket into the atmosphere may occur on 27 February at the latest at 5:52 CET over eastern Russia. In such a situation, Poland would not be in the window of uncertainty at all.

Launched from a platform at sea

Jielong 3 (CZ-11A) is a Chinese commercial orbital launch vehicle launched from a floating platform in the Yellow Sea. The mass of the upper stage of the rocket (after completing the mission) is estimated at 500 kg, which is "a low risk of survival of its fragments after it enters the Earth's atmosphere and falls to Earth " - POLSA reported. On January 13, the Chinese rocket carried 10 commercial navigation signal amplification satellites into low Earth orbit.

EU SST is a system of sensors for observing artificial space objects, operational centers processing data and services providing information services on the situation in space. These tasks are carried out by 15 EU countries, including Poland, within the EU SST Partnership. Our country has telescope systems on all continents and provides the most data to EU SST.

EU SST is also responsible for building and maintaining the European catalogue of space objects. The recipients of EU SST services are EU administrations , EU Member State authorities and satellite operators.

Fragments of Musk's rocket

On February 19, before five in the morning, a SpaceX Falcon 9 R/B rocket stage entered the atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner over Poland. The rocket stage, weighing about 4 tons , came from the SpaceX Starlink Group 11-4 mission , which took off from an air base in California on February 1. Four objects that could be part of the Falcon 9 rocket were found in Wielkopolska.

POLSA reported that the fragments were found in Komorniki , where the object fell on the premises of an electrical equipment wholesaler, in Wiry, where the object was found in a forest, in Śliwno, where the object fell in a field and in Szamotuły, where the object was found on the edge of a forest.

Source: PAP